A pair of teams tied for third place in the American Athletic Conference standings will square off when the Florida Atlantic Owls (20-6,10-3 AAC) host the SMU Mustangs (19-7, 10-3) on Thursday night. FAU has lost two of its last four games, including a 90-86 setback at South Florida on Sunday. SMU is riding a six-game winning streak, crushing Memphis in a 106-79 final on Sunday. This is the lone meeting between the Owls and Mustangs this season. 

Tipoff is set for 7 p.m. ET at Eleanor R. Baldwin Arena. FAU is favored by 6.5 points in the latest Florida Atlantic vs. SMU odds, while the over/under is 154 points via SportsLine consensus. Before entering any SMU vs. FAU picks, you'll want to see the NCAA Basketball predictions from the model at SportsLine.

The model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. It enters Week 16 of the 2023-24 season on a 136-89 roll on all top-rated college basketball picks dating back to last season, returning nearly $2,500 for $100 players. It is also off to a sizzling 25-13 start on top-rated spread picks this season. Anyone following has seen huge returns.

The model has set its sights on SMU vs. FAU. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college basketball betting lines for the game:

  • FAU vs. SMU spread: FAU -6.5
  • FAU vs. SMU over/under: 154 points
  • FAU vs. SMU money line: FAU: -278, SMU: +224
  • FAU vs. SMU picks: See picks here

Why FAU can cover

FAU has not lost a home game since being stunned by Bryant in mid-November, rattling off a nine-game home winning streak. The Owls cruised to an 80-68 win over Temple in their most recent home game, as junior guard Johnell Davis scored 17 points and dished out six assists. Davis is averaging a team-high 18.6 points, 6.7 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game. 

He has three teammates who are also scoring in double figures, including junior center Vladislav Goldin (14.4 ppg). The Owls are in third place in the conference standings, but they are just two games back of first-place South Florida. Five of SMU's seven losses have come away from home this season. 

Why SMU can cover

SMU has been red-hot since the end of January, using a six-game winning streak to move into a tie for third place in the AAC standings. The Mustangs crushed Rice in a 95-69 final as 6.5-point road favorites two weeks ago before taking down Tulane on the road last week. They are coming off perhaps their most impressive showing of the season, blowing out Memphis in a 106-79 final on Sunday. 

Senior guard Ricardo Wright poured in 26 points on 9 of 12 shooting off the bench, while four starters scored in double figures. Junior guard Zhuric Phelps leads SMU with 14.7 points per game, and senior guard Chuck Harris is adding 13.4 points and 3.6 assists per contest. The Mustangs have covered the spread at a 12-5-1 clip in their last 18 games, while FAU is 3-11 against the spread in its last 14 games. See which team to pick here. 

How to make FAU vs. SMU picks

The model has simulated SMU vs. FAU 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Under, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Florida Atlantic vs. SMU, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that is on a 136-89 roll on its top-ranked college basketball picks, and find out.