I've referred before to the "globbing" at pitcher in 2023, wherein a confluence of factors ranging from a shift ban to an increase in base activity essentially did away with the upper class and replaced it with a tangled mass of unpredictability. That's a mild exaggeration, of course, but what distinctions did exist were less stark and more wobbly.
If you wondered how that league-wide development might change drafting behaviors for 2024, our first Head-to-Head points mock offers some clues. It's the format that generally favors starting pitching, as you're probably aware, but starting pitchers weren't exactly a hot commodity early on. True, Gerrit Cole and Spencer Strider went off the board in Round 1, and they do stand out over the rest of the crop. But Round 2 would have been completely devoid of starting pitchers if not for Zac Gallen at Pick 15, who seemed out of place there and was probably picked in anticipation of a run that didn't happen. I'd venture to say he won't be one of the first five pitchers selected in most Fantasy leagues.
The drafting of pitchers picked up in Round 3, but it wasn't until Round 5 that more pitchers than hitters went off the board, which is a bit late in the game given how few hitter spots there are to fill in this format. It seemed to me like most of the participants in this draft implemented some variation of the same strategy I intend to use this year. Let's go ahead and make those introductions now:
1) Doug Roe, former Podcast League champ
2) Frank Stampfl, CBS Sports (@Roto_Frank)
3) Nick Fox, NBC Sports (@CT_FOX)
4) Chris Mitchell, FantasyData (@CJMitch73)
5) Chris Welsh, In This League podcast (@IsItTheWelsh)
6) Chris Towers, CBS Sports (@CTowersCBS)
7) Tim Kanak, Fantasy Aceball (@fantasyaceball)
8) R.J. White, CBS Sports (@rjwhite1)
9) Sonny Villani, Major League Dynasty (@_sonnyvillani)
10) B_Don, Razzball (@RazzBDon)
11) Scott White, CBS Sports (@CBSScottWhite)
12) Jake Holland, formerly The Toss Up podcast (@jakebaseball17)
So what strategy am I referring to? Basically, I'm loading up on hitters until all the MVP-caliber bats are gone since they stand a better chance than the early-round pitchers of distinguishing themselves from what comes later. Those MVP-caliber bats generally last for about four rounds before giving way to something more interchangeable, at which point I pivot hard to pitching, looking to score as many hopeful difference-makers as I can until the position truly descends into that glob of mediocrity. It's a quantity-over-quality approach built on the recognition that "quality" in this environment is hard to pin down.
To contrast my team with one that didn't make the pivot, Chris Towers kept drafting hitters all the way through Round 7. For me, Ketel Marte and Christian Walker don't provide a clear enough advantage at second and first base, respectively, to settle for Jesus Luzardo and Mitch Keller at the top of my rotation. They're fine pitchers, but they're toward the back end of the fine pitchers. And you need an abundance of fine pitchers to make up for a lack of aces.
Here are a few other scattered observations from the draft:
- If you happened to catch our first mock draft, which was geared for Rotisserie leagues, you may be surprised by how far Bobby Witt, Corbin Carroll and Julio Rodriguez slid in this one, with the latter two lasting until Round 2. They're consensus top-five picks in Rotisserie mostly because of their abundant stolen bases, which are valuable in points scoring, too, but not essential like they are in Rotisserie. More than anything, the disparity is a testament to how many first round-caliber hitters there are. Carroll (3.80 points per game in 2023) and Rodriguez (3.59) would still make for fine choices, but so do Corey Seager (4.14) and Juan Soto (3.64).
- Speaking of Soto, this was our first mock since he was traded to the Yankees, a move which you can see has completely renewed enthusiasm for him. Granted, Head-to-Head points has always been his better format given that he walks so much and strikes out so little, but given how much he struggled at Petco Park, the move to Yankee Stadium figures to be transformative. He lasted to Round 2 in our first Rotisserie mock but is now almost certainly a first-rounder in that format as well.
- Other players who likely went earlier in this draft because of recent transactions in the real world include Jeimer Candelario (121 overall), Eduardo Rodriguez (125), Jung Ho Lee (179), Craig Kimbrel (212), Luis Severino (218) and Jarred Kelenic (226).
- "Strap in, boys" is what Chris Welsh said before taking the plunge on Wyatt Langford with the fifth pick in Round 9, clearly in anticipation of the top prospect making the Rangers' opening day roster. It's a realistic possibility after the fourth pick in the 2023 draft surged through the team's entire minor-league system last season, and if we're to believe that his plate discipline will translate, he could be a natural in this scoring format. For what it's worth, Jackson Chourio, another top outfield prospect with perhaps an even better chance of making the opening day roster after signing an eight-year deal this offseason, went off the board seven picks later.
- Round 20 stood out as one of the most interesting in the draft because of how unconventional it was. It seemed like most participants used it to pick up a pet player, not wanting him to go undrafted. My choice was Erick Fedde, who just signed on with the White Sox after a year spent dominating the Korean league with a revamped arsenal that's been compared to Logan Webb's. He won their equivalent of both the Cy Young and MVP, and if his price remains this low, I'll be drafting him everywhere.
Now, for the full results ...
