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USATSI

We are rapidly approaching a changing of the guard at the tight end position, at least that's what the rankings would tell you. Sam LaPorta, Trey McBride, and Dalton Kincaid are all 24 years old or younger, and all three rank inside the consensus top five tight ends. Kyle Pitts and Jake Ferguson are both 25 or younger and rank as top 10 options. Brock Bowers may just be the best tight end prospect ever. The youth are coming hard for the crown. The question is whether Travis Kelce is ready to give it up last year.

Most of the evidence in the statistics suggests that Kelce's decline has begun. His 8.1 targets per game was his lowest mark since 2016. His 10.6 yards per reception was the lowest mark of his career. Both his aDOT and his YAC were at four-year lows. He even posted his lowest touchdown total since 2019. The truth is that Kelce earned fewer targets last year and did less with them. When that happens at 34, you probably shouldn't bet on a rebound at 35.

The counterpoint is in that playoff game log. Kelce caught 32 passes for 355 yards and three touchdowns on his way to hoisting the Lombardi trophy for the third time in five years. He did this against three of the toughest defenses against tight ends last year. And he'll face one of them on Thursday night, the Ravens. The whole Fantasy world will be watching to see which Kelce we get. 

Here's everything else you need to know about tight end in Week 1:

Week 1 TE Preview
TE Preview
Who's Out

The following players are not being projected to play Week 1 at this time. Here's what it means:

MIN Minnesota • #87
Age: 27 • Experience: 6 yrs.
We aren't suggesting any of the Vikings tight ends as streamers
LAR L.A. Rams • #89
Age: 31 • Experience: 9 yrs.
Colby Parkinson is an interesting streamer in deeper leagues.
TE Preview
Numbers to Know
  • 112 -- Trey McBride was on pace for 112 catches in his 10 starts last year.
  • 77% -- Travis Kelce's 77% snap rate in 2023 was his lowest since 2014.
  • 8.3% -- Sam LaPorta scored on 8.3% of his targets last year. He'll need an increase in volume or efficiency to make up for the touchdown regression that is coming.
  • 15.1 -- T.J. Hockenson was averaging 15.1 PPR FPPG before he tore his Achilles. He's worth drafting in Round 10 if you have an IR spot to stash him.
  • 5.2 -- David Njoku averaged just 5.2 targets per game with Deshaun Watson. He averaged 8.8 in his other 11 games.
  • 2.26 -- George Kittle led all tight ends at 2.26 yards per route run in 2023.
TE Preview
Matchups that matter
SEA Seattle • #87
Age: 27 • Experience: 6 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs DEN SEA -6 O/U 42
OPP VS TE
12th
PROJ PTS
6.9
TE RNK
16th
2023 Stats
REC
32
TAR
43
REYDS
414
TD
0
FPTS/G
4.3
CIN Cincinnati • #88
Age: 29 • Experience: 7 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs NE CIN -8.5 O/U 40.5
OPP VS TE
8th
PROJ PTS
6.4
TE RNK
18th
2023 Stats
REC
29
TAR
45
REYDS
244
TD
2
FPTS/G
3.8
JAC Jacksonville • #17
Age: 30 • Experience: 8 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ MIA MIA -3.5 O/U 49.5
OPP VS TE
24th
PROJ PTS
12.1
TE RNK
6th
2023 Stats
REC
114
TAR
143
REYDS
963
TD
4
FPTS/G
13.5
LAR L.A. Rams • #86
Age: 25 • Experience: 5 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ DET DET -3.5 O/U 51
OPP VS TE
7th
PROJ PTS
3.7
TE RNK
23rd
2023 Stats
REC
25
TAR
34
REYDS
247
TD
2
FPTS/G
3.6
TE Preview
Waiver Wire Targets
Week 1 Streamers (TE Preview)
SEA Seattle • #87
Age: 27 • Experience: 6 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs DEN SEA -6 O/U 42
OPP VS TE
5th
TE RNK
16th
ROSTERED
11%
2023 Stats
REC
32
TAR
43
REYDS
414
TD
0
FPTS/G
4.3
Fant has been banged up this preseason, but he is expected to play. He has a revenge game against a Broncos defense that gave up the most points to opposing tight ends last year. He also has a new offensive coordinator who I expect will focus the team's tight end targets more singularly than Shane Waldron did in the past.
LAR L.A. Rams • #86
Age: 25 • Experience: 5 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ DET DET -3.5 O/U 51
OPP VS TE
1st
TE RNK
23rd
ROSTERED
4%
2023 Stats
REC
25
TAR
34
REYDS
247
TD
2
FPTS/G
3.6
Playing at Ford Field has been a lot like hitting at Coors Field in baseball. You should expect a bunch of points. The Rams and Lions have the highest over/under of Week 1 and Parkinson should be the lead tight end with Tyler Higbee out for Week 1. If you're streaming tight end you're basically hoping for a touchdown and you might as well aim for the highest-scoring game of the weekend if you're hoping for a touchdown.
TE Preview
DFS Plays
Top DFS Play
Projections powered by Sportsline
ARI Arizona • #85
Age: 25 • Experience: 3 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ BUF BUF -6.5 O/U 48.5
OPP VS TE
31st
PROJ PTS
10.4
TE RNK
2nd
2023 Stats
REC
81
TAR
106
REYDS
825
TD
3
FPTS/G
10.7
McBride is my number one tight end for both the week and the season. He's priced as the third-most expensive tight end on the slate, 20% cheaper than Sam LaPorta. The Bills have traditionally been a tough matchup for tight ends, but they won't have Matt Milano, who has made a big difference in the past.
Contrarian DFS Play
Projections powered by Sportsline
HOU Houston • #86
Age: 28 • Experience: 7 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ IND HOU -2.5 O/U 49
OPP VS TE
11th
PROJ PTS
9.9
TE RNK
14th
2023 Stats
REC
59
TAR
88
REYDS
635
TD
5
FPTS/G
10
Schultz was second on the Texans in red zone targets last year, behind only Nico Collins. Despite missing two and a half games, he saw 19% of the Texans' red zone targets in the regular season and added another touchdown in the Wild Card game. He's not a cash game play, but of the tight ends that cost less than $6,000 on FanDuel, he's the most likely to reach the end zone twice.
TE Preview
Heath's Projections

My full set of Week 1 Fantasy football projections for every position are now available on SportsLine. You can find them here. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 1. Projected stats for all starting tight ends are available, so be sure to check out the full set of projections at SportsLine.