It took only seven days for Japanese ace-slash-slugger Shohei Ohtani to pick a new team. On Friday, seven days after being posted by the Nippon Ham Fighters, Los Angeles Angels. He had until 11:59 p.m. ET Dec. 22 to sign, but decided to wrap things up quickly.
"This morning, after a thorough, detailed process, Shohei Ohtani has decided to sign with the Los Angeles Angels," his agent said in a statement. "Shohei is humbled and flattered by all the time and effort that so many teams put into their presentations and sincerely thanks them for their professionalism. In the end, he felt a strong connection with the Angels and believes they can best help him reach his goals in Major League Baseball."
With the Angels, Ohtani will team up with the world's best player in Mike Trout, the world's best defensive shortstop in Andrelton Simmons, and one of the best hitters in history in Albert Pujols. Can't complain about that. The Angels went 80-82 in 2017 and finished five games back of a wild-card spot. Ohtani and a full season of Justin Upton could push them into the postseason in 2018.
In recent weeks Ohtani had become known amongst fans as the "Babe Ruth of Japan" because of his pitching and hitting ability, and the Angels will certainly give Ohtani a chance to continuing playing both ways. How will that work? Exactly what kind of ability are we talking here? That's what we're all still trying to find out. Here's what we know for now.
Ohtani pitched once a week in Japan
With the Fighters these past two years, Ohtani would pitch on Sunday and serve as the DH between starts. He stopped playing the outfield two years ago because the team didn't want to put too much on him physically, and also because they wanted him to focus on his offense and not worry about his defense.
Pitchers in Japan start once a week, not once every five days like in the majors, so the Angels and Ohtani will have to sit down and figure out a schedule that works going forward. And they might not get it right on the first try. They might have to tweak things as they go until they find the right schedule. A six-man rotation is in consideration.
Billy Eppler has long been intrigued by the possibility of a six-man rotation. With Ohtani’s once-a-week track record and the rest of the Angels' starting staff’s injury history, it could make sense to unveil one in 2018.
— Pedro Moura (@pedromoura) December 8, 2017
Clearly, the Angels want to get as much production out of Ohtani as possible, but they also don't want him to risk injury. Keeping a starting pitcher healthy is tough enough. Keeping a starting pitcher who hits between starts will be even more difficult. Here is Ohtani's regular schedule in Japan, as well as potential schedules with the Angels:
Day 1 | Day 2 | Day 3 | Day 4 | Day 5 | Day 6 | Day 7 | |
Schedule in Japan | Pitch | Rest | DH | DH | DH | Rest | Rest |
Possible 5-man rotation | Pitch | Rest | DH | DH | Rest | Pitch | Rest |
Possible 6-man rotation | Pitch | Rest | DH | DH | DH or rest | Rest | Pitch |
Is one day of rest after a start and one day of rest before a start enough? That's what Ohtani and the Angels will figure out. I expect the Halos to use scheduled team off-days to give him that extra breather whenever possible. That much is for sure.
Ohtani had ankle surgery in October
It should be noted Ohtani is currently worked his way back from October ankle surgery. He hurt the ankle last fall, when he ran through first base awkwardly in an exhibition game. Ohtani played on the ankle, as well as a nagging quad injury, all season, which limited his playing time. The good news is the ankle procedure was relatively minor and Ohtani has already resumed some offseason workouts. He'll be ready in time for spring training. The surgery is another reason for the Angels to play it safe, however.
Ohtani's projections are outstanding
This season Ohtani hit .332/.403/.540 with eight home runs in 231 plate appearances while throwing 25 1/3 innings with a 3.20 ERA around the ankle and quad injuries. Last year, when fully healthy, Ohtani authored a .322/.416/.588 batting line with 22 home runs in 382 plate appearances while throwing 140 innings with a 1.86 ERA and 174 strikeouts. That earned him league MVP honors.
Of course, the level of competition in Japan is a notch or two below MLB, so expecting Ohtani to put up those numbers with the Angels is unfair. That doesn't mean he can't be a productive player, of course. The statistical translations and projections expect him to produce something along these lines in 2018:
- As a hitter: .266/.328/.466 (112 OPS+), 12 HR, +2.2 WAR in 305 at-bats
- As a pitcher: 3.55 ERA (119 ERA+), 10.4 K/9, +3.3 WAR in 139.1 innings
On a rate basis, that is Evan Gattis at the plate and Jacob deGrom on the mound. The Angels would sign up for that in a heartbeat. That's an impact pitcher and a dangerous hitter. Projections are not perfect, of course, but at least it gives us a ballpark idea of what is possible next season.
Scouting reports acknowledge the risk
Aside from YouTube clips that are sliced and diced to make Ohtani look like the greatest baseball player who ever lived, very few MLB fans have seen Ohtani play regularly. So, to get an idea of his ability, Kyle Glaser of Baseball America spoke to players who competed against Ohtani in Japan. Here's what former Mariners outfielder Stefen Romero said about Ohtani as a pitcher:
"His fastball is hittable," Romero said. "I feel like it's hittable to American players because it's straight, there's not a lot of movement. It's hard, but it is straight. It's more of like an overhand, three-quarter arm slot so it's not too difficult to pick up. But it's his offspeed pitches that he can throw for strikes and have the same arm slot and arm speed with that will get you in trouble. His forkball, it looks just like a fastball but it drops two feet straight down. It starts at your thigh and looks just like a 100-mph fastball and then it just drops two feet into the dirt. His offspeed stuff is pretty legit."
Ohtani is the hardest throwing pitcher in Japanese baseball history. He broke his own record for the fastest pitch several times over and has topped out at 102 mph. Hitters can catch up to 102 mph if it's straight and in the strike zone, so Ohtani will have to use his slider and splitter/forkball to have success, and fortunately those two pitches are high quality.
Now here's what former big league journeyman reliever Dennis Sarfate told Glaser about Ohtani as a hitter:
"I think I faced him 11 times and I think I gave up a single and triple, and the single was actually a squiggler down the third-base line that he beat out." Sarfate said. "He's got decent plate awareness, the only problem I see him having issues with early on-and he can make the adjustment-is fastballs in. Japanese guys tend to stay away from him, I think it's a lot of respect and they don't want to throw a fastball in and break his arm or hit him in the elbow. I think he's aware of that, that no one pitches him in. I pitch him in and have had good success going in.
"Big league pitchers aren't afraid to go in, they don't care who you are. And that's going to be his one adjustment he's going to have to make."
The pitch in has been flagged as the primary concern for Ohtani at the plate. He's a left-handed hitter and right-handed thrower, so his pitching arm is exposed during his at-bats, which is unusual and risky. There is much more velocity in MLB than there is in Japan. Turn on any random MLB game during the season and you'll likely see two or three guys coming out of the bullpen pumping 97-98 mph fastballs with ease. Ohtani will have to adjust to that velocity and the inevitable barrage of inside pitches.
The most important thing for Ohtani and the Angels is to find a schedule that works. A schedule that allows him to contribute on both sides of the ball while ensuring he gets enough rest and recovery time. I think the Angels will try their best to go with a six-man rotation, which not only means more rest for Ohtani, but also means more rest for guys like Garrett Richards, Tyler Skaggs, and Andrew Heaney, each of whom missed time with significant injuries in 2017.
It is also important to note Ohtani is a 23-year-old kid. This is not a grizzled veteran. He is one day older the Red Sox outfielder Andrew Benintendi. He's four months younger than Yankees ace Luis Severino and two months younger than Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager. Ohtani is, for all intents and purposes, a prospect. That means he has a lot of great years ahead of him, but also some adjustments to make, both on the field and off the field as he moves to the new country.
