If someone hadn't paid attention to the standings all season and then just glanced, here on Sept. 9, at the American League standings, that someone might think the Yankees and Orioles are in the midst of pretty great seasons.
I suppose that's true, from a certain point of view. After all, they are on pace to win 93 and 92 games, respectively. That's a good season. With the Red Sox and Rays hovering around .500 and the Blue Jays having the best record among last-place teams, maybe it's just a really tough division where the teams beat up on each other!
That might've been the case earlier in the year, but it hasn't been the actual truth for quite a while.
- The Rays are 14-18 since Aug. 4.
- The Red Sox are 33-39 at home and have lost 11 of 16.
Let's focus more heavily on the relevant teams, though.
Orioles
I noted that the Orioles are on pace to win 92 games this season, but that would be a rather significant step back after 101 wins last season. Plus, the Orioles have been mediocre for a while this season. They are exactly .500 since the All-Star break (24-24). We could go back farther and get to nearly a half-season sample, because the Orioles are 37-40 since June 12.
Here's a list of the teams the Orioles have beaten in a series in the second half: Rangers, Blue Jays, Rays, Rockies, White Sox.
Hardly a murderer's row here in 2024.
Gunnar Henderson looked like an MVP-caliber performer in the first several months, but he's lost 149 points of OPS since the All-Star break. At least he's still productive, though. Adley Rutschman can't say the same. He's hitting .197/.282/.289 in the second half.
Trade-deadline acquisition Trevor Rogers was so bad that the Orioles sent him to the minors. The rotation as a whole has a 4.34 ERA since the All-Star break (it was 3.63 before). The bullpen has a 4.24 ERA since the break after a 3.83 first half.
There's still time to get things together here and bring the second straight AL East title to Baltimore, though, as they only trail the Yankees by half a game. That said, they'll need to shape up, as the remaining schedule isn't easy. The Orioles only have one team left that currently has a losing record and that's the 71-73 Giants. There are no more total pushovers (like those Rockies and White Sox series wins) awaiting the Orioles.
Yankees
While the Orioles have been mediocre for a while, the Yankees have stayed right with them in the futility department.
Since they started 50-22, the Yankees have gone 32-39 (.451, which means they've played like a 73-win team for almost three months). Only the Mariners, Angels and White Sox have been worse among AL teams.
Now, the Yankees have been slightly better than the Orioles since the All-Star break at 24-21 and they are 17-16 since the start of August, but that's hardly a case of them blistering through the schedule. They've lost series to teams like the Angels, Tigers, Nationals, Cardinals and Rangers. They beat the Cubs over the weekend, but only scored six total runs in the three games.
On that front, the Yankees' offense remains heavily reliant on Juan Soto and Aaron Judge. When that pair goes through even mini-funks, the Yankees lose games. About that. Soto is hitting .217/.321/.348 in his last 12 games, of which the Yankees have won just five. In those same 12 games, Judge is hitting .186/.340/.256 with zero home runs.
Though there are plenty of bright spots -- Gerrit Cole, the returning Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt -- the rotation is pretty unreliable as a whole. Starters had a 5.37 ERA in June and have a 4.50 ERA in the second half. The bullpen has a litany of issues, including Clay Holmes leading the majors in blown saves.
Despite all of this, one of these two teams will win the AL East. The other will likely finish in the top wild-card spot. The "battle" -- not even a slap fight or pillow fight, it's two dudes waving feathers at each other at this point -- will likely bleed into the final week. The good news there is we'll get to witness a three-game series in Bronx between the Orioles and Yankees. The bad news is it doesn't really seem like either team wants to win this thing right now.
