We're already more than halfway through the 2023 Formula 1 season and Red Bull Racing is the only team to register a victory, with Max Verstappen recording 11 wins and Sergio Perez winning twice. Verstappen's current winning streak is nine races and he could set a new Formula 1 record with a 10 victory as he heads to Autodromo Nazionale di Monza just outside Milan in Italy for the 2023 Italian Grand Prix, which begins at 9 a.m. ET on Sunday. The Monza Circuit is an 11-turn, 3.6-mile course known affectionately as "The Temple of Speed" because of its several lengthy straightaways.
Verstappen captured his first career victory at Monza last year and is the -400 favorite (risk $400 to win $100) in the 2023 Italian Grand Prix odds but there have been five different manufacturers to win this race in the last five years. Perez is listed at 9-1 and is followed by Mercedes' Lewis Hamilton (18-1), McLaren's Lando Norris (20-1) and Aston Martin's Fernando Alonso (22-1) in this week's Italian GP odds. Before analyzing the 2023 Italian Grand Prix starting grid and making any Formula 1 picks, be sure to check out the latest 2023 Italian GP predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven projection model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary Formula 1 prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results. It's had a strong history of success in motorsports, correctly predicting nine NASCAR winners since the 2021 season and its projected leaderboards have forecasted winners across multiple racing formats.
The model has been scorching hot when it comes to picking Formula 1 race events dating back to 2021. It nailed both of Charles Leclerc's wins in 2022, and at the 2021 Mexican Grand Prix, the model was strongly backing Verstappen as its top pick. The result: Verstappen dominated the field and ran away with a surprise victory.
The model followed that up by calling Verstappen's win at the Rolex Emilia Romagna GP in April and then nailed his wins again in Belgium, the Netherlands, Japan, the United States, Mexico and Abu Dhabi. It's also nailed all 11 of Verstappen's wins so far in the 2023 season. Anyone who followed the model's lead on those plays has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has dialed in on the 2023 Formula 1 Italian Grand Prix and just released its coveted picks and leaderboard projections. You can head to SportsLine now to see the complete 2023 Italian Grand Prix leaderboard projection.
Top 2023 Formula 1 Italian GP predictions
One surprise: The model is fading Oscar Piastri even though he is tied for seventh favorite this week. Piastri and McLaren have made unquestionable improvements in the middle portion of the season, with McLaren registering points in seven of the eight opportunities with its two drivers over the last four races and Piastri earning his first two top-five finishes during that span.
However, he's still been outside the top 10 in eight of 13 races this season and is yet to seriously challenge for a victory, with zero podium finishes. He's only 12th in the standings and of the top-10 drivers in this week's odds, he's the only one without multiple podium finishes and is one of only two drivers in the top eight without a win. Piastri could be a future champion in F1 but he hasn't done anything to justify his price this week and the model is predicting he barely finishes inside the top 10. See who else the model is backing and fading right here.
How to make 2023 Italian Grand Prix picks
The model is also targeting one longshot getting F1 odds of 33-1 or longer to make a surprising surge up the leaderboard. Anyone who backs him could hit it big. You can find out who he is, and see all of the model's F1 picks and predictions, at SportsLine.
So who wins the Italian Grand Prix 2023, and which under-the-radar drivers make a stunning charge toward the front? Check out the latest 2023 F1 odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2023 Italian Grand Prix leaderboard, all from the model that has already nailed all 11 of Verstappen's wins this season, and find out.
2023 Formula 1 Italian Grand Prix odds, field, top contenders
See F1 Italian Grand Prix picks at SportsLine.
Max Verstappen -400
Sergio Perez +900
Lewis Hamilton +1800
Lando Norris +2000
Fernando Alonso +2200
Charles Leclerc +2800
Oscar Piastri +3300
George Russell +3300
Carlos Sainz +5000
Alexander Albon +12500
Lance Stroll +25000
Esteban Ocon +30000
Pierre Gasly +30000
Yuki Tsunoda +50000
Valtteri Bottas +75000
Guanyu Zhou +75000
Nico Hulkenberg +100000
Kevin Magnussen +100000
Logan Sargeant +100000
Liam Lawson +100000