The 2024 Australian Grand Prix will take place early Sunday, with lights-out at midnight ET for the third race on the Formula 1 schedule. The Albert Park Circuit in Melbourne has hosted the Australian Grand Prix since 1996, a blend of a street course and permanent racetrack. The 14-turn, 3.280-mile racing circuit goes around Albert Park Lake and uses public roads, but every sector has a high-speed area with safety runoffs more commonly associated with purpose-built tracks.

Max Verstappen is the three-time defending world champion and last year's winner at Albert Park is the -600 (bet $600 to win $100) favorite in the 2024 Australian Grand Prix odds. He's followed by Red Bull Racing teammate Sergio Perez (+800), Ferrari's Charles Leclerc (+1800) and Mercedes' Lewis Hamilton (+4000) in the 2024 Australian GP odds. Before analyzing the 2024 Australian Grand Prix starting grid and making any Formula 1 picks, be sure to check out the latest 2024 Australian GP predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary Formula 1 prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results. It's had a strong history of success in motorsports, correctly predicting nine NASCAR winners since the 2021 season and its projected leaderboards have forecasted winners across multiple racing formats.

The model has been scorching hot when it comes to picking Formula 1 race events dating back to 2021. It nailed both of Charles Leclerc's wins in 2022, and at the 2021 Mexican Grand Prix, the model was strongly backing Verstappen as its top pick. The result: Verstappen dominated the field and ran away with a surprise victory. 

The model followed that up by calling Verstappen's win at the Rolex Emilia Romagna GP in April and then nailed his wins again in Belgium, the Netherlands, Japan, the United States, Mexico and Abu Dhabi. It also nailed all 19 of Verstappen's wins during the 2023 season and then called both of the defending champion's wins to start the 2024 season. Anyone who followed the model's lead on those plays has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has dialed in on the 2024 Formula 1 Australian Grand Prix and just released its coveted picks and leaderboard projections. You can head to SportsLine now to see the complete 2024 Australian Grand Prix projected leaderboard.

Top 2024 Formula 1 Australian GP predictions

One surprise: The model is fading Lewis Hamilton, even though he's one of the top favorites. Hamilton is one of the most accomplished drivers in the history of the sport, with seven championships and 103 grand prix wins to his name. However, Mercedes has been left in the dust by Red Bull and with Ferrari lurking last season, Hamilton announced he'll join the Italian giants in 2025.

Now, Hamilton is racing out his contract at Mercedes and the early results have been a disappointment. After improving from sixth in the standings in 2022 to fourth last season and narrowly holding off Ferrari in the constructors' last year, Hamilton is ninth in the standings and Mercedes is fourth through two races. His five-race streak of failing to reach the top five is tied for the longest in his career and the model predicts that streak continues on Sunday. See who else the model is backing and fading at the 2024 Australian Grand Prix right here.

How to make 2024 Australian Grand Prix picks

Instead, the model is also targeting two drivers going off at longer than 25-1 to make surprising surges up the leaderboard. Anyone who backs them could hit it big. You can find out who they are, and see all of the model's F1 picks and predictions, at SportsLine.

So who wins the Australian Grand Prix 2024, and which stunning longshots charge towards the front? Check out the latest 2024 F1 odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2024 Australian Grand Prix leaderboard, all from the model that has already nailed all 19 of Verstappen's wins last season, and find out.

2024 Formula 1 Australian Grand Prix odds, grid, contenders

See F1 Australian Grand Prix picks at SportsLine.

Max Verstappen -600
Sergio Perez +800
Charles Leclerc +1800
Carlos Sainz +3300
Lewis Hamilton +4000
George Russell +4000
Lando Norris +5000
Fernando Alonso +5000
Oscar Piastri +6600
Oliver Bearman +8000 (relief driver)
Lance Stroll +25000
Esteban Ocon +50000
Alexander Albon +50000
Yuki Tsunoda +75000
Daniel Ricciardo +75000
Pierre Gasly +75000
Nico Hulkenberg +100000
Kevin Magnussen +100000
Logan Sargeant +150000
Valtteri Bottas +150000
Guanyu Zhou +150000