Max Verstappen will try to bounce back from a rare Formula 1 loss when he races in the 2024 Japanese Grand Prix at Suzuka International Racing Course on Sunday at 1 a.m. ET. Verstappen was forced to retire in Australia due to a mechanical issue, which gave Carlos Sainz Jr. a chance to finish atop the podium. However, Verstappen has won this race the last two years and is the -350 favorite (risk $350 to win $100) to three-peat this weekend, according to the 2024 Japanese Grand Prix odds. Should you lay the heavy price with your 2024 Japanese Grand Prix bets?

Verstappen is followed by Charles Leclerc (11-1), Sainz (11-1) and Sergio Perez (11-1) on the F1 odds board. Lewis Hamilton, who has won this race four times in the last 10 years, is a 50-1 longshot further down the Formula 1 odds board. Before analyzing the 2024 Japanese Grand Prix starting grid and making any Formula 1 picks, be sure to check out the latest 2024 Japanese GP predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary Formula 1 prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results. It's had a strong history of success in motorsports, correctly predicting nine NASCAR winners since the 2021 season and its projected leaderboards have forecasted winners across multiple racing formats.

The model has been scorching hot when it comes to picking Formula 1 race events dating back to 2021. It nailed both of Charles Leclerc's wins in 2022, and at the 2021 Mexican Grand Prix, the model was strongly backing Verstappen as its top pick. The result: Verstappen dominated the field and ran away with a surprise victory. 

The model followed that up by calling Verstappen's win at the Rolex Emilia Romagna GP in April and then nailed his wins again in Belgium, the Netherlands, Japan, the United States, Mexico and Abu Dhabi. It also nailed all 19 of Verstappen's wins during the 2023 season and then called both of the defending champion's wins to start the 2024 season. Anyone who followed the model's lead on those plays has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has dialed in on the 2024 Formula 1 Japanese Grand Prix and just released its coveted picks and leaderboard projections. You can head to SportsLine now to see the complete 2024 Japanese Grand Prix projected leaderboard.

Top 2024 Formula 1 Japanese GP predictions

One surprise: The model is fading Carlos Sainz, even though he's one of the top favorites. Sainz might be coming off an unlikely victory last week, but he could have trouble contending on Sunday. He has retired twice at this track in the last six years and his best finish was fifth place in 2019.

Sainz finished sixth last year, retired in 2022 and finished 10th in 2015 and 2018. His Australian Grand Prix win was a feel-good story after he missed the previous race due to appendicitis, but it is unlikely that it translates into a strong result this week, according to the model. The model is going in a different direction with its Japanese Grand Prix podium picks, especially since Sainz has been an inconsistent driver throughout his career. See who else the model is backing and fading at the 2024 Japanese Grand Prix right here.

How to make 2024 Japanese Grand Prix picks

Instead, the model is also targeting two drivers going off longer than 50-1 to make surprising surges up the leaderboard, including an epic triple-digit longshot. Anyone who backs them could hit it big. You can find out who they are, and see all of the model's F1 picks and predictions, at SportsLine.

So who wins the Japanese Grand Prix 2024, and which stunning longshots charge toward the front? Check out the latest 2024 F1 odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2024 Japanese Grand Prix leaderboard, all from the model that has already nailed all 19 of Verstappen's wins last season, and find out.

2024 Formula 1 Japanese Grand Prix odds, grid, contenders

See F1 Japanese Grand Prix picks at SportsLine.

Max Verstappen -350
Charles Leclerc +1100
Carlos Sainz +1100
Sergio Perez +1200
Lando Norris +2000
Oscar Piastri +2800
George Russell +4000
Lewis Hamilton +5000
Fernando Alonso +6600
Lance Stroll +17500
Alexander Albon +75000
Daniel Ricciardo +75000
Yuki Tsunoda +75000
Nico Hulkenberg +100000
Kevin Magnussen +100000
Guanyu Zhou +150000
Valtteri Bottas +150000
Esteban Ocon +150000
Pierre Gasly +150000
Logan Sargeant +200000