Phoenix Raceway will host the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Championship on Sunday and it will be the fourth year in a row that the champion has been crowned on the one-mile, dogleg oval. Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, William Byron and Ryan Blaney are the four drivers who qualified for the championship finale, with the highest finisher of the four winning the title. However, while only the four drivers can win the championship, any of the 36 drivers in the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Championship field can win the individual race.

Blaney won last week in Martinsville to earn his spot in the finale and he's listed at +280 (bet $100 to win $280) in the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Championship odds. Larson won the championship in 2021 and he's the +170 favorite in the NASCAR at Phoenix odds, with Byron at +325 and Bell at +450. The green flag drops at 3 p.m. ET. Before scouring the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Championship starting lineup and making any 2023 NASCAR at Phoenix predictions, be sure to see the latest 2023 NASCAR Phoenix picks from SportsLine's proven NASCAR model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

McClure's model is off to a red-hot start this season, already nailing Martin Truex Jr.'s Clash win (20-1) as well as his win in New Hampshire (11-2), Joey Logano's Duel win (8-1), Kyle Busch's Fontana victory (10-1), Denny Hamlin's triumph in Kansas (6-1) and Kyle Larson's wins at Martinsville (6-1) and the NASCAR All-Star Race (13-2). The model correctly predicted winners in two of the playoff races as well, with Ryan Blaney scoring a 12-1 payout at Talladega and Larson winning at 9-2 in Las Vegas. It also impressively nailed five of Larson's wins during his historic season in 2021. 

All told, the model has nailed a whopping 15 winners since 2021. Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.

Now, the model simulated the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Championship 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected NASCAR at Phoenix leaderboard.

Top 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Championship predictions

For the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Championship, the model is high on Kyle Busch, even though he's a 60-1 longshot in the latest 2023 NASCAR at Phoenix odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. After capturing the first four wins of his NASCAR Cup Series career in a Chevrolet with Hendrick Motorsports, Busch spent the next 15 years of his career with Joe Gibbs Racing and Toyota, where he won two championships and 56 total races.

However, Busch only won four times in his final three seasons with Joe Gibbs Racing and decided to shake things up by joining Richard Childress Racing this offseason. Back in a Chevrolet again, Busch has won three times in 2023 and it's safe to categorize his season as a success even though he was eliminated after the first round of the 2023 NASCAR playoffs. Now he'll be looking to capture a fourth win this season in the finale, which would also be his fourth career victory at Phoenix Raceway.

And a massive shocker: The model says Ryan Blaney, one of the Vegas favorites at +280, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top five. There are far better values in the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Championship starting lineup. Blaney punched his ticket into the championship finale for the first time in his career with a win at Martinsville last week and he's up to 10 wins in the NASCAR Cup Series in his career.

However, he's never finished better than seventh in the standings so this is uncharted territory and he's never won a race in Phoenix. Both Blaney and Bell will be at a slight disadvantage with Hendrick Motorsports teammates Larson and Byron having the advantage of working together and the model is predicting that Blaney falls well short of winning his first title on Sunday. See which other drivers to avoid and the rest of the projected NASCAR leaderboard at SportsLine.

How to make 2023 NASCAR at Phoenix picks

The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2023 NASCAR Phoenix odds of 28-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the NASCAR Cup Series Championship 2023, and which longshots are a must-back? Check out the latest 2023 NASCAR at Phoenix odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2023 NASCAR at Phoenix leaderboard, all from the model that already nailed nine winners this season.

2023 NASCAR Cup Series Championship odds, drivers, lineup

See full NASCAR at Phoenix picks at SportsLine

Kyle Larson +170
Ryan Blaney +280
William Byron +325
Christopher Bell +450
Kevin Harvick +1300
Joey Logano +2000
Denny Hamlin +2200
Tyler Reddick +2500
Martin Truex Jr. +2800
Chase Elliott +4000
Brad Keselowski +5000
Chase Briscoe +5500
Kyle Busch +6000
Chris Buescher +6500
Ross Chastain +7500
Ty Gibbs +7500
Bubba Wallace +12500
Aric Almirola +12500
Daniel Suarez +20000
Alex Bowman +20000
Ryan Preece +30000
Erik Jones +30000
Austin Dillon +75000
Austin Cindric +100000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +100000
Carson Hocevar +100000
A.J. Allmendinger +100000
Michael McDowell +150000
Justin Haley +250000
Harrison Burton +250000
Corey Lajoie +300000
Todd Gilliland +500000
Ty Dillon +500000
JJ Yeley +500000
B.J. McLeod +500000
Ryan Newman +500000