Brad Keselowski will try to join an exclusive group when he competes in the 2024 Ambetter Health 400 at Atlanta Motor Speedway on Sunday. Keselowski is hoping to become the eighth driver to register at least three victories in this race, which debuted in 1960. The 2012 Cup Series champion captured the checkered flag for the first time in 2017 and repeated the feat two years later. A third win would tie him with Neil Bonnett, Bill Elliott and Jeff Gordon for the second-most, one behind the Hall-of-Fame quartet of Richard Petty, Dale Earnhardt, Bobby Labonte and Jimmie Johnson. It also would end an overall drought of 99 starts for Keselowski, whose last Cup Series victory came in April 2021 at Talladega.

Sunday's race is scheduled to begin at 2:30 p.m. ET. Keselowski is 10-1 (risk $100 to win $1,000), while Joey Logano, who won this race last year, is the 9-1 favorite in the latest 2024 Ambetter Health 400 odds. Before scouring the 2024 Ambetter Health 400 starting lineup and making any 2024 NASCAR at Atlanta predictions, be sure to see the latest 2024 Ambetter Health 400 picks from SportsLine's proven projection model.  

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

McClure's model was red-hot in 2023, nailing Martin Truex Jr.'s Clash win (20-1) as well as his win in New Hampshire (11-2), Joey Logano's Duel win (8-1), Kyle Busch's Fontana victory (10-1), Denny Hamlin's triumph in Kansas (6-1) and Kyle Larson's wins at Martinsville (6-1) and the NASCAR All-Star Race (13-2). The model correctly predicted winners in two of the playoff races as well, with Ryan Blaney scoring a 12-1 payout at Talladega and Larson winning at 9-2 in Las Vegas. It also impressively nailed five of Larson's wins during his historic season in 2021. 

All told, the model has nailed a whopping 15 winners since 2021 and nine last year alone. Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.

Now, the model simulated the 2024 Ambetter Health 400 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected NASCAR at Atlanta leaderboard.

Top 2024 Ambetter Health 400 predictions

For the 2024 Ambetter Health 400, we can tell you the model is high on Ross Chastain, even though he's a 20-1 longshot in the latest 2024 NASCAR at Atlanta odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Chastain has burnished a reputation as the sport's biggest risk taker, most famously for his decision to ride the wall at Martinsville in the penultimate race of the season to pass several cars just before the start-finish line and earn a spot in the championship race.

Chastain tried to pull off another huge move, albeit less successfully, last week to win the Daytona 500. After leading late but getting left out of a draft with four laps left, Chastain got a great run on the outside with two laps to go and tried to shoot a gap back to the inside to pull off a pass. He wound up making contact and causing a crash just as the white flag came out, giving Byron the automatic win. Expect more aggression this week from Chastain, who has four wins the last two seasons and was runner-up in Atlanta twice in 2022.

Another massive shocker: Joey Logano, the Vegas favorite, stumbles big-time and fails to crack the top five. There are far better values in the 2024 Ambetter Health 400 starting lineup. Despite winning the pole and leading 45 laps last week at Daytona, Logano was involved in the big crash late and wound up with a disappointing 32nd-place finish in the 2024 Daytona 500.

Now he'll head back to Atlanta as the defending champion of the Ambetter Health 400 but that was his only win of the season in 2023. Logano finished 17th in the summer race in Atlanta and his 12th-place finish in the NASCAR standings was his worst since missing the playoffs entirely in 2017. He's now finished outside the top 10 in six of his last nine Cup starts. See which other drivers to avoid and the rest of the projected NASCAR leaderboard at SportsLine.

How to make 2024 NASCAR at Atlanta picks

The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2024 NASCAR Atlanta odds of 14-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the Ambetter Health 400 2024, and which longshots are a must-back? Check out the latest 2024 NASCAR at Atlanta odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2024 NASCAR at Atlanta leaderboard, all from the model that has called 15 winners since 2021.

2024 Ambetter Health 400 odds, drivers, lineup

See full NASCAR at Atlanta picks at SportsLine

Joey Logano 9-1
Denny Hamlin 19-2
Brad Keselowski 10-1
Ryan Blaney 10-1
Christopher Bell 10-1
Kyle Larson 12-1
William Byron 12-1
Chase Elliott 12-1
Kyle Busch 14-1
Martin Truex Jr. 15-1
Bubba Wallace 18-1
Tyler Reddick 20-1
Ross Chastain 20-1
Erik Jones 22-1
Chris Buescher 22-1
Ty Gibbs 25-1
Austin Cindric 28-1
Alex Bowman 28-1
Michael McDowell 33-1
Daniel Suarez 35-1
Corey Lajoie 40-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 40-1
Austin Dillon 45-1
Chase Briscoe 50-1
Noah Gragson 60-1
Ryan Preece 65-1
John Hunter Nemechek 65-1
Josh Berry 75-1
Todd Gilliland 75-1
Carson Hocevar 75-1
Harrison Burton 100-1
Daniel Hemric 100-1
Zane Smith 100-1
Justin Haley 100-1
Josh Williams 150-1
Kaz Grala 250-1
BJ McLeod 500-1