The Week 1 NFL schedule features a cross-division NFC matchup between the Washington Commanders and Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. The Buccaneers won the NFC South in 2023 with a 9-8 overall record. The Commanders went 4-13 in 2023. Washington fired Ron Rivera and hired Dan Quinn to replace him. Reigning Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels is set to take over as the Commanders' starting quarterback. Tampa Bay was 12-7, while Washington was 6-10-1 against the spread in 2023.
Kickoff is scheduled at 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday. The Buccaneers are favored by 3.5 points in the latest Buccaneers vs. Commanders odds via SportsLine consensus, and the over/under is 42.5 points. Before locking in any Commanders vs. Buccaneers picks, you'll want to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 181-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 35-21 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
The model has set its sights on Commanders vs. Buccaneers and just locked in its picks and NFL Week 1 predictions. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NFL betting lines for spread, money line and over/under:
- Buccaneers vs. Commanders spread: Buccaneers -3.5
- Buccaneers vs. Commanders over/under: 42.5 points
- Buccaneers vs. Commanders money line: Buccaneers -193, Commanders +161
- Buccaneers vs. Commanders picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Buccaneers can cover
Tampa Bay has the benefit of continuity on its side. Washington underwent an offseason full of roster turnover and coaching changes, while the Bucs were able to keep the bulk of their NFC South championship roster intact. Tampa Bay is entering its third season under head coach Todd Bowles.
The Buccaneers have a speedy defense that could give rookie Jayden Daniels fits in his first NFL start. Linebacker Lavonte David remains one of the premier players at his position in the NFL, and he has speed that few linebackers can match. Safety Antoine Winfield Jr. was a first-team All-Pro in 2023 and is arguably the best young safety in the NFL today. See which team to pick here.
Why the Commanders can cover
The Commanders have the advantage of the unknown in this matchup. Offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury is known for running high-powered offenses, and rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels was one of the most productive quarterbacks in college football history. Tampa Bay will have to adjust to Kingsbury's play-calling on the fly.
Despite being in rebuilding mode, Washington still has one of the premier defensive lines in the NFL. Veterans Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen form arguably the best defensive tackle duo in the NFL, and defensive end Clelin Ferrell is a former first round pick. Offseason addition Bobby Wagner solidified the middle linebacker position for Dan Quinn's defense. See which team to pick here.
How to make Buccaneers vs. Commanders picks
The model has simulated Buccaneers vs. Commanders 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Over, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that hits in well over 60% of simulations. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Buccaneers vs. Commanders in Week 1, and which side of the spread cashes well over 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Commanders vs. Buccaneers spread to back, all from the model that has returned well over $7,000 on top-rated NFL picks, and find out.
