Even though the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' last two regular seasons weren't overly impressive, they were good enough for the team to extend its string of NFC South titles to three in a row. The run began when the Buccaneers followed their Super Bowl championship campaign of 2020 with a 13-4 showing that gave them their first division crown since 2007.
They finished with an 8-9 record in legendary quarterback Tom Brady's third and final year with the club, which was good enough for them to repeat as NFC South champions since all three of their division rivals went 7-10. After Brady capped his spectacular 23-year career with his 20th trip to the playoffs, Baker Mayfield came aboard last season and guided Tampa Bay to another division title as he set career highs of 4,044 passing yards and 28 touchdown tosses while the team had a 9-8 mark.
The Buccaneers' quest to join the 2017-20 New Orleans Saints as the only teams to capture the crown four consecutive times since the NFC South was created prior to the 2002 season got off to a promising start, as they won four of their first six games in 2024. They then endured a four-game losing streak that included three one-score defeats, but have posted back-to-back victories since returning from their bye week to even their record at 6-6.
That record has them even atop the division with the Atlanta Falcons, who haven't finished first since 2016. Atlanta is heading in the opposite direction, as it has lost three straight contests, but it owns the tiebreaker against Tampa Bay as it swept the season series with 36-30 and 31-26 triumphs - the former coming in overtime.
Both teams' remaining schedules are favorable, as the Falcons' opponents have a combined 25-36 record while the Buccaneers' foes are 22-38. Atlanta and Tampa Bay each have matchups against the 2-10 Las Vegas Raiders and 3-9 Carolina Panthers, with the Falcons also facing the 2-10 New York Giants and the Bucs having only one of their final five contests against a team with a winning record (Los Angeles Chargers, 8-4).
That factor could give Tampa Bay the upper hand in the race for the division title. Even though three of Atlanta's five opponents have nine or more losses, its other two games are against the 10-2 Minnesota Vikings and 8-5 Washington Commanders - both on the road.
But according to the SportsLine Projection Model, the Falcons currently have a slight edge to win the NFC South. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, says Atlanta finishes atop the division 50.1% of the time in its simulations, while Tampa Bay has a 49.3% outlook.
Neither the Falcons nor Bucs are expected to run the table and finish with 11 victories this season. The model gives Tampa Bay a better chance of doing it at 8.5% and says Atlanta ends with a five-game winning streak 3.8% of the time.
The best outlook for the Falcons, according to the model, is that they post three more wins (36%), while they record two in 28.8% of the simulations. It also says three victories is the most likely total for the Bucs (35.8%), with four being the next most likely outcome (29.3%).
The model projects that Atlanta is more likely to reach its floor (0-1 win at 11.4%) than Tampa Bay (6.1%), and that it will hit the middle ground (2-3 wins) 64.8% of the time, compared to the Bucs doing so in 56.2% of the simulations. Overall, it envisions the Falcons finishing with 8.7 victories and Tampa Bay with 9.1.
NFC SOUTH | ATLANTA | TAMPA BAY |
Win Division | 50.1% | 49.3% |
Projected Wins | 8.7 | 9.1 |
11 Wins | 3.8% | 8.5% |
10 Wins | 19.8% | 29.3% |
9 Wins | 36.0% | 35.8% |
8 Wins | 28.8% | 20.4% |
7 Wins | 10.3% | 5.5% |
6 Wins | 1.3% | 0.6% |
Atlanta visits Minnesota on Sunday, while Tampa Bay hosts Las Vegas. The model is calling for a close contest between the Falcons and Vikings, but Buccaneers-Raiders is one of the four games with A-grade picks based on simulations for the 14th week of the season. You can find those top-tier Week 14 NFL picks at SportsLine.
