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USATSI

Just in time for Thanksgiving, we enjoy one of our best weeks of the season in this little betting corner of the internet. I went 11-3 ATS throughout the Week 11 slate, including a 4-1 ATS mark on my five locks of the week. Our lone miss was Miami failing to pull away and cover the double-digit spread against the Raiders. I also had 10 of the 14 games predicted correctly, which brings me over 100 correct straight-up picks on the season. Overall, we had this collection of games pretty dialed in. 

That said, we won't get too high or too low within these picks and simply look to keep the momentum rolling as we head into the holiday weekend, starting with my five locks of the week. 

Before we do, Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours! Now let's make some cash to pair with our turkey. 

2023 record

Regular season
Locks of the Week ATS
: 29-26
ATS: 84-74-6
ML: 103-61

All NFL odds via SportsLine consensus odds.

Packers at Lions 

  • Thursday, 12:30 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)  

It doesn't look like the Packers will have Aaron Jones for this matchup, which is a massive dent in their overall offense. While Green Bay was able to beat the Chargers at home last week, Jordan Love continues to have me question his consistency and overall ability to keep up with an offense like Detroit's, especially without his best weapon in Jones. Jared Goff is coming off a three-interception game in Week 11, but the Lions were still able to come out with a win and I expect the quarterback to put together a more sound outing this week. This could also be a strong day for both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs as they face a Packers run defense that is allowing 4.8 yards per rush on the road (fifth-highest in the NFL). 

Projected score: Lions 30, Packers 20
The pick: Lions -7.5

49ers at Seahawks

  • Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo)  

The 49ers are showing us that they are fully back on track after a stellar win over the Bucs on Sunday. Brock Purdy had a perfect passer rating, they got contributions from all of their skill-position players, and the defense is top-notch. Losing safety Talanoa Hufanga is a tough blow, but it doesn't sway me from laying the points here especially with this number being under a touchdown. Geno Smith likely won't be 100% after suffering an injury to his throwing arm on Sunday or it'll be Drew Lock under center for Seattle. Either way, it'll be tough for Seattle to keep pace with San Francisco's offense, especially when needing to claw through a Niners defense. That unit ranks fourth in pressure rate coming into Week 12, while the Seahawks offensive line is allowing pressure at the eighth-highest rate in the league. 

Projected score: 49ers 27, Seahawks 20
The pick: 49ers -6.5

Patriots at Giants

  • Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)  

This game features two of the worst teams in the NFL and I'm surprised to see the Patriots laying a full field goal as a road favorite. Yes, they've had a week's rest coming off the bye, but this is still one of the worst offenses in the NFL that seems ready to potentially split the reps at quarterback throughout the week. Meanwhile, the Giants offense was able to make plays with Tommy DeVito last week against a horrid Commanders pass defense. While New England's secondary is better than Washington's, DeVito could have plenty of time to throw. The Patriots rank 31st in sack percentage and are 29th in pressure rate this season. I'll take the field goal and lean toward the home dog sending New England into further despair. 

Projected score: Giants 17, Patriots 16
The pick: Giants +3

Jaguars at Texans

We knew that Jacksonville was going to rebound after its lifeless loss to the 49ers in Week 10 and looked great against the Titans on Sunday. That said, I'm starting to wonder if the Jaguars are simply a club that beats up on bad competition. Yes, they beat the Bills in London, but outside of that, they have not taken down any great teams. They lost to the Chiefs in Week 2 and then the Niners a couple of weeks ago. They also lost to this Texans team in Week 3. We can't put the Texans in the same breath as San Francisco and K.C. at the moment, but they are certainly one of the toughest teams they've faced this year and I expect this game to be tight. Meanwhile, the Texans are 3-0 against teams above .500 this season. I also like Houston's ability to slow down Travis Etienne with a run defense that ranks eighth in rushing yards per game allowed and third in yards per rush allowed. We've sided with C.J. Stroud for the past few weeks and we're staying at the table while it's still hot.

Projected score: Texans 24, Jaguars 23
The pick: Texans +1.5

Bills at Eagles

Buffalo was able to get back into the win column with a victory over the Jets, but it's hard to take much away from that game, especially with New York's quarterback situation in such disarray. I also have a ton of questions about this Bills team when it's outside of Highmark Stadium. In Buffalo, they are 5-1, but just 1-4 on the road (or London). Josh Allen's splits falter when he's on the road, and Philadelphia is one of the toughest road environments in the league. That's also not mentioning that the Eagles are looking like a Super Bowl juggernaut that just clawed to a win at Arrowhead Stadium against the Chiefs on Monday. This could be a huge game for D'Andre Swift as he is set to face a Bills run defense that is allowing 4.5 yards per carry this season (fourth-most in the NFL). Philly is also 6-2-2 ATS this season, which gives them the highest cover percentage (75%) in the NFL. 

Projected score: Eagles 27, Bills 23
The pick: Eagles -3.5

Rest of the bunch

Commanders at Cowboys
Projected score: Cowboys 33, Commanders 20
The pick: Cowboys -11

Dolphins at Jets
Projected score: Dolphins 27, Jets 16
The pick: Dolphins -10

Saints at Falcons
Projected score: Falcons 23, Saints 20
The pick: Falcons -1

Steelers at Bengals
Projected score: Steelers 19, Bengals 13
The pick: Steelers -1

Panthers at Titans
Projected score: Titans 23, Panthers 17
The pick: Titans -3.5

Buccaneers at Colts
Projected score: Colts 23, Buccaneers 20
The pick: Colts -2.5

Browns at Broncos
Projected score: Broncos 21, Browns 17
The pick: Broncos -2.5

Rams at Cardinals
Projected score: Cardinals 23, Rams 20
The pick: Cardinals -1

Chiefs at Raiders
Projected score: Chiefs 28, Raiders 17
The pick: Chiefs -9.5

Ravens at Chargers
Projected score: Ravens 30, Chargers 20
The pick: Ravens -4

Bears at Vikings (Monday)
Projected score: Vikings 24, Bears 21
The pick: Bears +3.5