Two teams struggling to put points on the board will meet on Thursday Night Football as the Pittsburgh Steelers host the New England Patriots to kick off Week 14 of the 2023 NFL schedule. Pittsburgh (7-5) occupies the top wild-card spot in the AFC playoff picture despite ranking 28th in the league in scoring with an average of 16 points. New England (2-10), which enters with a five-game losing streak, is producing an NFL-low 12.3 points per contest and has recorded seven or fewer in its last three outings.

Kickoff from Arcisure Stadium is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. Pittsburgh is a 6-point favorite in the latest Steelers vs. Patriots odds via SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 30. Before making any Patriots vs. Steelers picks of your own, you need to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's Advanced Computer Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 14 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 176-128 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 30-20 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season and is 31-12 straight-up the last three weeks.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Steelers vs. Patriots and just locked in its picks and Thursday Night Football predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Patriots vs. Steelers: 

  • Steelers vs. Patriots spread: Pittsburgh -6
  • Steelers vs. Patriots over/under: 30 points
  • Steelers vs. Patriots money line: Pittsburgh -270, New England +218
  • PIT: Steelers have scored fewer than 17 points in three straight games
  • NE: Patriots have gone three consecutive contests without a passing touchdown
  • Steelers vs. Patriots picks: See picks at SportsLine
  • Steelers vs. Patriots live stream: Stream TNF on Amazon

Why the Steelers can cover

With Kenny Pickett sidelined due to a high-ankle sprain, Mitch Trubisky will start at quarterback on Thursday Night Football. The 29-year-old Trubisky led Pittsburgh to just two wins in five starts last season, but is 31-24 as a starter over his NFL career. Trubisky replaced Pickett in last week's 24-10 home loss to Arizona and completed 11-of-17 pass attempts for 117 yards and a touchdown.

Najee Harris, who's active despite sitting out practice this week, should get plenty of carries against New England, but will have his work cut out for him since the Patriots are fourth against the run (88.7 yards allowed). The 25-year-old running back, who eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark in his first two NFL seasons, has gained 661 yards this year and recorded four of the Steelers' eight rushing touchdowns. Jaylen Warren has run for 601 yards and three TDs while making 38 catches for 243 yards, all career-highs. See which team to pick here.

Why the Patriots can cover

Despite falling 6-0 to the Los Angeles Chargers last week for its second shutout loss of the season, New England had a 257-241 edge in total yards. The Patriots also gained 148 yards on the ground despite losing top running back Rhamondre Stevenson to a high-ankle sprain in the first quarter and limited the Chargers to a mere 29. They have been strong against the run all season, as they rank fourth with an average of 88.7 yards allowed.

It was the third consecutive game and eighth time this year New England kept an opponent under triple-digits in rushing yards. The team has been solid overall defensively in 2023, ranking eighth in the league with 310.5 total yards allowed per contest. In addition, the Patriots have held the opposition to 10 points or fewer in each of their last three games, posting a league-low average of 8.7 permitted in that span. See which team to pick here.

How to make Steelers vs. Patriots picks on TNF

SportsLine's model is leaning Under the point total, calling for 29 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread cashes in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model's TNF picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Patriots vs. Steelers on Thursday Night Football, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Patriots vs. Steelers spread you need to jump on, all from the model on a 176-128 roll on NFL picks, and find out.